Professor Michael Mann begins his important book, “The Climate War,” with this quote: “Doubt is our product, since it is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the minds of the general public.” Although the quotation originated with a sixties tobacco executive, it could be spoken today by the leaders of the Republican Party, as their primary product is disinformation.

In George Orwell’s classic, “1984,” the ruling Party controls the people by systematic propaganda; “brainwashing” that Orwell described as “doublethink:”

To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again, and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself—that was the ultimate subtlety: consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed.

1984’s ruling Party, “big brother,” uses the “thought police” to control the populous through disinformation.  Professor Michael Mann observes that Republican oligarchs — the Koch brothers, the Mercer family, Rupert Murdoch, and others — control the GOP faithful through disinformation.  Donald Trump is their willing servant.

Since the advent of Trump, political observers have noted that Republicans — who once focused on “conservative” ideology — have moved away from traditional Republican ideas and, instead, embraced the cult of personality: “Trumpism.”  Because Trump is a media personality and a pathological liar, enclasping him made it easier for the GOP to become the Party of disinformation.

In 2021, Republicans don’t stand for political notions; instead, they oppose Democratic policy proposals, offering disingenuous substitutions.  Consider these critical national issues:

Climate Change: Professor Michael Mann’s thesis is that extreme weather events have ended full-on climate change denial; opposition has moved from “‘hard’ climate denial to ‘softer’ denial: downplaying, deflecting, dividing, delaying and despair-mongering.”  We can see this in the recent Republican stance: “Yes, but…”  As in, “Yes climate change is real, but what about jobs or China or …?”

In this vein, it should be noted that most of the Republican oligarchs that support Trump in climate-change diversion, also support his disinformation in other sectors.  (Mann notes that Russia and Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest petroleum exporters — supported Trump’s climate-change disinformation campaign.)

Coronavirus Pandemic: The Trump Administration’s response to COVID-19 was a truncated version of the historic Republican response to Climate Change.  First, they denied it; at one point Trump called the pandemic “a hoax,” just as years before he had called Climate Change “a hoax”.  Next, Republicans minimized the pandemic; early on Trump claimed that the coronavirus was a minor issue; “it will disappear in a few weeks.”  Then, Trump focussed on blaming China.  In terms of a public health response, Trump foisted this on the states.  (At one point, Trump used a classic anti-Climate-Change tactic, the false expert.  GOP oligarchs have employed Bjorn Lomborg to dispute the severity of climate change; Trump used Scott Atlas to dispute the severity of the coronavirus pandemic.)

January 6th Insurrection:  Few Republicans attempted to deny the January 6th Trump-orchestrated attack on the Capitol.  Many responded by downplaying it or by artful use of deflection; for example, many claimed the attack was orchestrated by Antifa or “left-wing provocateurs posing as Trump supporters.”  Another Republican deflection was the claim that the insurrection was “no worse than the Black Lives Matter ‘riots” during the summer.”  Of course, the ultimate deflection occurred during Trump’s second impeachment trial when many Republicans claimed Trump could not be convicted because he was no longer President at the time of the trial.

Economic Relief: President Biden has made his first order of legislative business the passage of “the American Rescue Plan:”  (1) Aid to individuals: $1400 direct payment; Increase in unemployment insurance.  (2) Aid to families: extending the eviction/foreclosure moratorium until September; increasing child-tax credit. (3) Aid to states and local governments.  (4) Aid to schools.  (5) Funds for COVID-19 testing and vaccination.

Few Republicans oppose the general notion of pandemic-related economic relief.  Once again, they engage in “soft” denial: downplaying, deflecting, dividing, delaying and despair-mongering.  For example, Republicans complain the bill has “too much pork” or only contains aid to Blue states.

Democrats versus Republicans on the issues: Whether on jobs and the economy, reopening schools, dealing with racial tensions, or the other major issues confronting the United States, the same political dynamic exists: Democrats offer proposals and Republicans offer disinformation.  For example, Democrats offer concrete proposals to promote a more equitable society and Republicans counter by asserting “there is no problem.”  What we are seeing are not two different takes on the same issues, but rather a serious proposal versus a soundbyte.

Response to the pandemic provides a perfect illustration of this dynamic: the Biden Administration has launched a concerted effort to thwart COVID-19.  The Republican response seems to be: “You can’t make me wear a mask.”

Solutions: At the heart of our current political impasse is the Republican disinformation machine; the reality that “doubt is [their] product.”   Of course, some of this disinformation has been diminished by voting Trump our of office.  (And will further diminish as we vote other Republicans out.)  Nonetheless, the fundamental nature of the Republican Party has changed — and is antithetical to democracy,

Long range there are two solutions: one is to severely penalize the purveyors of disinformation. such as Fox News.  The other is to restrict the influence of social media such as Facebook and Twitter.  Shut down the disinformation.

A month into the Biden-Harris administration, we’ve reached an inflection point: the conclusion of Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial. While there were not enough Senate votes for conviction, public sentiment turned against Trump. The outcome has consequences for Biden-Harris, Trump, and the 2022 election.

The latest ABC News/Ipsos Poll (https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/abcnews-impeachment-poll ) indicated that 58 percent of respondents felt Trump should have been convicted at the trial (84 percent of Democrats, 65 percent of Independents, and 14 percent of Republicans.)  57 Senators voted for conviction, including 7 Republicans.  After the trial, Republican Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell said: “Former President Trump’s actions preceding the riot were a disgraceful dereliction of duty… There is no question that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day.  The people who stormed this building believed they were acting on the wishes and instructions of their President.  And their having that belief was a foreseeable consequence of the growing crescendo of false statements, conspiracy theories, and reckless hyperbole which the defeated President kept shouting into the largest megaphone on planet Earth.”

Going forward, what can we expect?

The Biden-Harris Administration wisely got out of the way of Trump’s impeachment proceedings.  They should continue to do this and get on with their “to do” list: dealing with the Coronavirus pandemic, stabilizing the economy, insuring that all Americans have the right to vote, protecting the environment, rebuilding U.S. infrastructure and on and on.

President Biden’s (implicit) attitude should be “the previous President screwed up everything and I’ve got to work full-time to right the good ship America.”  That is to say, the Biden-Harris Administration shouldn’t mount an additional effort to go after Trump.  Nonetheless, the Federal Attorney for the District of Columbia has mounted an effort to identify and charge leaders of the January 6th insurrection; if he — Michael Sherwin or his successor — finds sufficient evidence to charge Trump, then he should do this.

Donald Trump has lost momentum.  Trump lost the 2020 presidential election by 7 million votes (in the election, 37 percent of voters identified as Democrats, 36 percent as Republicans, and 26 percent as Independent; Biden got 94 percent of Democratic votes, 6 percent of Republican votes, and 54 percent of Independent votes.)  Since then, Trump hasn’t done anything positive to increase his base of support.  As he left office, Trump’s approval rating was at 29 percent (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/20/how-we-know-the-drop-in-trumps-approval-rating-in-january-reflected-a-real-shift-in-public-opinion/ ).  A recent poll indicated that 26 percent of Republicans want Trump to get out of politics (https://www.newsweek.com/majority-americans-want-trump-completely-removed-politics-poll-finds-1569156).

Like a wounded bear, Trump has retreated to his cave — Mar-a-Lago.  A charismatic leader in hiding.

The 2022 election:  Most Republicans believe Trump will emerge from his Florida cave and be a factor in the 2022 midterm election.  Nonetheless, it’s unlikely Donald will ever again have the power he had when he occupied the White House.  Over time his influence will diminish.

1.Trump needs media attention.  At the moment, he doesn’t have it and is unlikely to get it soon.  From the moment Trump announced his presidential candidacy — June 16, 2015 — he got slavish media attention; that lasted for five and a half years.  In the White House, Trump had press briefings — stopping on November 3, 2020 — and daily Twitter bursts — stopping on January 8, 2021.  (It appears that Donald has been permanently banned from Twitter.)

Over the next few months, Trump’s lack of media attention will erode his base support.

2. Trump has no base outside the Republican Party.  (Where roughly 70 percent support him.)  The 2020 election proved a candidate cannot win a national race without garnishing support outside his Party.

Trump’s reduced base is a long-term impediment to his dream of regaining power.  And a problem for the Republican Party in general.

3. At the moment, Trump is the Republican “kingmaker.” For most political contests, Donald can determine who the Republican candidate will be.  If a 2022 GOP candidate is deemed to not be sufficiently “Trumpian,” Trump can decree that that candidate be primaried.  For example, Alaska Republican Senator Murkowski voted for Trump’s conviction on February 12th.  She’s running for reelection in 2022.  In the Alaska Republican primary, Trump will support someone to run against her.

Nonetheless, in most states, Trump’s kingmaker influence will have limited utility.  In a few overwhelmingly Republican state, such as Alabama, Trump’s anointed candidate will win the general election.  In the most competitive states, Trump’s imprimatur won’t be the determining factor.  For example, in 2022, Republican Senate seats are up in North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  In these states Trump can determine who the Republican candidate will be, but that candidate will not be able to win unless they attract Independent votes.  “Trumpism,” alone, won’t help these candidates win.

4. Unless you are a Trump devotee, “Trumpism” is associated with failure.  Donald Trump is stained by his inability to deal with the Coronavirus pandemic and his traitorous leadership of the January 6th insurrection.  For the electorate, in general, being Trump’s anointed candidate is not a good thing.  That suggests that to the extent 2022 Republican candidates are Trump acolytes, the GOP is heading for defeat.

5. In 2022, being Trump’s anointed candidate won’t guarantee you a surge of GOP votes.  In 2020, Republicans got an unexpectedly large turnout — 74 million votes (the largest for a losing presidential candidate).  For this reason, Republicans expect to have a similar surge in 2022. That’s overly optimistic.  The surprising 2020 GOP turnout was due to Trump’s presence on the ballot.  He won’t be on the ballot in 2022 and many Trump loyalists won’t turn out.

Furthermore, in 2020 the traditional Democratic ground game was neutered because of the pandemic.  That won’t be the case in 2022.

6. Going forward, Trump will not be an effective leader of the Republican Party because he is too self absorbed.  Trump has only effectively campaigned for himself; he has no track record of directly helping other Republicans.  He wasn’t effective in 2018; Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives.  In 2020, Trump wasn’t effective in Georgia’s January 4th special Senate elections.

7. Trump doesn’t stand for anything.  “Make America great again” has morphed into “Make Donald Trump great again.”  In 2022, that’s not going to help most Republican candidates.

In 2016, Trump had a limited policy agenda: immigration (“build the wall”), clean up Washington (“drain the swamp”), and (amazingly) bring competence to the White House (“I’m a successful CEO”).  In 2021, Trump has no policy agenda; he has grievances: “the election was stolen;” “the deep state conspired against me;” “Mitch McConnell betrayed me,” etcetera.  Therefore, in 2022, when Trump supports a Republican candidate, he will support them on the basis of their support for Donald Trump not their positions on particular issues.  That’s not a winning combination.

Summary:  Donald Trump has been diminished.  Nonetheless, he continues to be a power within the Republican Party.  That’s a problem for Republicans, not for Democrats.

On the one hand we know we can’t relax — the forces of crazy are still trying to disrupt U.S. democracy — but on the other hand it’s exhilarating to have a President who is not a constant irritation, who (every day) isn’t a danger to push the nuclear button and blow us all up. Joe Biden has done well so far, but he has a very difficult job. 6 months from now, what should we reasonably expect him to have accomplished?

1.Get on top of the Pandemic.  At this writing, more than 27 million Americans have contracted Covid-19 and 460 thousand have died.  The infection rate has declined to 130,000 per day.  About 8 percent of the U.S. population has been vaccinated — with a current vaccination rate above 1.25 million per day.

Biden has a clear target: “…fully vaccinate 300 million Americans by the end of the summer…” (The U.S. population is roughly 330 million.)  If we achieve this target, by the end of the summer — Labor Day — most Americans, who want to be vaccinated, will be vaccinated.  It’s unclear if we will have reached the threshold for “herd immunity.”

Biden’s Labor-Day target also includes getting kids back to school — after sanitizing the schools. In the most recent Monmouth Poll (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_012721/), when asked about pressing national concerns, the top concern was “education and schools; 84 percent of respondents said that dealing with education and schools was “extremely important” or “very important.”

Biden’s Labor Day target also means reopening most of the businesses hardest hit by the pandemic; for example, restaurants.  Because some US regions will resist vaccination — just as they now resist wearing masks and social distancing — Americans won’t be able to travel everywhere.

2. Stabilize the economy. President Biden has made his first order of legislative business the passage of “the American Rescue Plan:”  (1) Aid to individuals: $1400 direct payment; Increase in unemployment insurance; increase in minimum wage to $15 per hour. (2) Aid to families: extending the eviction/foreclosure moratorium until September; increasing child-tax credit. (3) Aid to states and local governments.  (4) Aid to schools.  (5) Funds for COVID-19 testing and vaccination.

This is a big financial package constructed by the Biden team in order to jumpstart an economy that’s in the doldrums.  The US Bureau of Economic Analysis recently reported:  “[US] Real GDP decreased 3.5 percent in 2020 (from the 2019 annual level to the 2020 annual level)… The decrease in real GDP in 2020 reflected decreases in [consumer price index], exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government.”  The unemployment rate is 6.7 percent and there are 10.7 million unemployed workers — there are also 7.3 million workers (technically) not in the workforce but wanting a job.  Assistance is needed in most sectors of the economy — except for the very wealthy.

I’m assuming that Biden’s “Rescue Plan” will pass Congress by the end of February.  The plan should bear fruit by Labor Day.

3. Punish the insurrectionists.  In the most recent Monmouth Poll (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_012721/), 83 percent of respondents said that dealing with “domestic terrorism and hate groups” was “extremely important” or “very important” — one of the top three concerns.  In this context, the Biden Administration needs to ensure that those responsible for the January 6th insurrection are brought to justice.

An important step in this process is the (second) impeachment of Donald Trump.  The Department of Justice and FBI are investigating the other leaders of the insurrection.  (This process would be facilitated by the Senate confirmation of Merrick Garland as Attorney General.)

By summer, the insurrection leaders should be charged and , hopefully, the political climate will improve.

4. Expand healthcare. The most recent Monmouth Poll (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_012721/), indicates that 81 percent of respondents described Healthcare as “extremely important” or “very important.”  Accordingly, it should be a top Biden priority to protect and expand the Affordable Care Act.  Perhaps by adding a public option, a government-run health insurance agency.

Democrats ability to do this will be dependent upon the nature of the newly agreed upon rules for governing the Senate — what happens to the filibuster.

5. Protecting the vote: The most recent Monmouth Poll (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_012721/), indicates that 75 percent of respondents described protection of voting rights as “extremely important” or “very important.”  Accordingly, House Democrats have reintroduced their “For The People Act” (also known as “HR 1”)  which would expand voting rights, change campaign finance laws to reduce the influence of money in politics, limit gerrymandering, and create new ethics rules for federal officeholders.

Democrats ability to do this will be dependent upon the nature of the newly agreed upon rules for governing the Senate — what happens to the filibuster.

6. Strengthen the Democratic Party.  In 2009, in the afterglow of Barack Obama’s victory, many Democrats took a vacation from politics, with disastrous results.  In 2010, Republicans surged: capturing control of the House of Representatives and eroding Democratic control of the Senate.  (Republicans also strengthened their hold over State legislature, which permitted them to gerrymander at will.)  In 2022, Dems can’t afford a replay of what happened in 2010.

At this writing, the Senate has a 50-50 split and Democrats control the House by a narrow margin — 222 – 211 with 2 seats still contested.

In 2022, there are four Republican Senate seats that are up-for-grabs: North Carolina (Burr — retiring), Ohio (Portman — retiring), Pennsylvania (Toomey — retiring), and Wisconsin (Johnson).  Democrats have good chances in each of these races — if  they start planning now.  Dems also have a good chance of expanding their House majority.  Democrats need to start working on the 2022 midterm election.

Summary:  By this summer, President Biden, and congressional Democrats, have a good shot at passing significant legislation.  At the moment, Biden has the confidence of the American people.  Hopefully, this will continue.