Americans are not lacking for things to worry about: mass shootings, extreme weather, insurrectionists, and, of course, inflation.  On June 10th,  the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm ) that the consumer price index had increased 8.6 percent in twelve months, the largest yearly increase since December 1981.  Americans are very upset by the rising costs.  The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/07/pessimism-about-economy-is-about-both-partisanship-prices/) noted: “Polling from YouGov conducted for The Economist found last month that 58 percent of Americans think the economy is getting worse.”

There is some positive economic news: unemployment is low (3.6 percent) and real hourly wages have increased (5.2 percent).  The economy is growing (3.5 percent annually) — although it dipped slightly in the first quarter of 2022.  Nonetheless, concerns about inflation dominate the mainstream media.

1.The biggest contributor to inflation is the increase in energy costs — 34.7 percent in twelve months (with gasoline up 48.7 percent).  On June 10th, the average US cost of a gallon of gasoline reached $5 — a year previous the average cost per gallon was $3.08.  Analyzing this increase, the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/11/business/energy-environment/gasoline-price.html) stated: “The war in Ukraine has had the most direct effect on gas prices, as sanctions on Russia have pulled more than a million barrels of oil off global markets. Energy traders have also bid up oil prices in anticipation that Russian production and exports will fall further…. [However] There isn’t enough capacity to refine oil into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Oil companies closed a handful of refineries in recent years, especially during the pandemic when demand plummeted.”  That is, the biggest factor has been the war in Ukraine, but another contributor has been the delay in increase in domestic production.  CNET (https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/heres-why-gas-prices-are-so-high-and-why-they-wont-be-going-down-anytime-soon/ ) commented: “Demand for gas plummeted during the pandemic, causing oil producers to put the brakes on production. Even though demand is nearing pre-pandemic levels, producers are still gun-shy about increasing production. In April, OPEC fell short of its targeted production increase by 2.7 million barrels a day.”

A recent Washington-Post poll (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22056399-2022-05-12-post-schar-school-trend-for-release ) indicated that Americans blame high gas prices on “corporations trying to increase profits” (72 percent),  “Russia’s actions against Ukraine” (69 percent), “disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic” (58 percent), and President Biden (58 percent).

Two factors are interacting: Russian oil is now unavailable on the open market and the other major producers are under capacity.  (Some say that the big domestic oil producers are happy with the high prices and place greed above the national interest.) President Biden has indicated that he is willing to use emergency powers granted under the “Defense Production Act” to boost production and to keep domestic suppliers from exporting oil. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/biden-willing-to-use-emergency-war-time-law-to-boost-gasoline) That would be a good move.

2.The next largest contributor to inflation is food costs — up 10.1 percent in twelve months.  Many of the same factors that affect gas prices also impact the cost of food.  For example, the war in Ukraine has Increased the price of food throughout the western world.  The increased cost of gasoline has drive up food costs because food needs to be transported from farm to market.  In Asia, a resurgence of the pandemic has disrupted supply chains.  There are also food staples that have been impacted by extreme weather; for example the price of beef has been affected by increased costs of feed and water.

If the US government brings down the price of oil, this will lower the cost of food because transportation costs will go down. The Biden Administration might also consider relief for farmers that are severely impacted by climate change.

3.The Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that “all items other than energy and food” have increased 6 percent in the last twelve months.  this includes items such as “new cars,” “shelter,” “apparel,” and “medical care services.”  All these items are going up, but some more than others; for example, “new cars” are up 12.6 percent because of supply-chain issues.

On June 15th, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates .75 percent. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html ) Not all economist agreed on this step.

The interest rate increase won’t impact the cost of energy and food — they will require the interventions noted above.   The Federal Reserve interest rate increase will impact housing purchases (and renovations) and the purchase of new cars (and other large consumer expenditures like TVs and boats.)  The trick will be to “cool off” these purchases and not tank the economy.  The Federal Reserve intent is to inspire a “soft landing” and not a recession.

4. The BB perspective: the US economy is in good shape compared to the rest of the world and we’re likely to go into a period of modest growth compared to our trading partners, who will be in recession.  (For example, Great Britain and Germany are probably headed for a recession.)

5.Politics: In today’s polarized environment, Democrats and Republicans view inflation differently. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/07/pessimism-about-economy-is-about-both-partisanship-prices/)

Most Republican voters don’t understand economics, so it’s easy for them to believe that President Biden caused inflation.  Recently Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio  said: “This will be a [period] of high gas prices, shortages and inflation because far left lunatics control our government.”

BB perspective: President Biden should get very aggressive with big-oil companies, and Russia.  He should blame energy costs on them and subject them to harsh penalties.

Biden should blame food costs on big-oil (transportation) and climate change.

In general, Biden needs to be more outspoken about inflation. And, of course, more aggressive attacking the root causes.

The horrific Uvalde massacre, and the Republican non-response, confirms what many of us have thought: the U.S. political process is broken. Not “strained” or “damaged” but rather “rent asunder.”  America’s political process can’t be repaired by applying duct tape. It needs reconstructive surgery.

The Uvalde massacre had tragically familiar components: a mentally-ill, socially-isolated gunman who had been bullied; ready access to weapons of mass destruction; targeting of innocents; and a shameful police response.  It was a horrific metaphor for the Republican response to the plight of our nation’s less fortunate citizens — the “99 percent.”  The Party of Trump responds to tragedy with “hunker down, snowflake; it’s going to get worse.”  And then dances.

The vast majority of Americans want common-sense gun reform (https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/05/26/new-poll-shows-huge-support-for-gun-restrictions-00035349 ). Republicans block this reform. (Trump’s response was: “defund Ukraine; fortify schools.”)

Because our political process is broken, we need to take strong measures.

1.Put people before profits. The U.S. political system has been corrupted by big money. Unfettered capitalism has taken democracy captive.  Republicans refuse to allow new gun-control legislation because they’ve sold out to the pro-gun lobby.

In 2022, the United States has two political Parties.  Democrats, who mostly support democracy (although there are “big-money” interests in the Party).   And Republicans, who are the Party of unfettered capitalism; the Party where “money talks and principle walks.”

It’s no secret that Republican politicians can be bought.  Consider Ted Cruz or Ron Johnson or (shudder) Mitch McConnell, among others.  The GOP leader is Donald Trump who has no principles at all, whose credo is “I’ll say whatever you pay me to say, for a big check.” The Republican Party is for sale to the highest bidder.

The only way to resolve this situation is to get money out of politics.  The only way to achieve this objective is for the Democrats to not only hold onto the House and Senate but to add seats.  Congress has to pass significant campaign-finance reform and this will only happen if Democrats prevail in November.

2. Expand the Supreme Court.  Meanwhile, because of the Trump “presidency,” the Federal judiciary is packed with ultra-conservative judges.  Therefore, it won’t be sufficient to simply pass reform legislation, because it will eventually be blocked in the Supreme Court.  (Blocked by the judges that the Republicans bought.)  Democrats have to expand the Supreme Court by at least three judges.

3. Protect voting rights. Restrictive voting rights favor Republicans; common-sense voting rights favor Democrats.  The GOP attack on equitable access to the ballot favors the one percent at the expense of the 99 percent.

Heading into the November election, it is vital to pass laws to protect election workers, same-day registration and early voting. It is also necessary to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, which directly addresses the state legislatures’ electoral power grab.

4. Pass common-sense gun control. The vast majority of Americans want common-sense gun reform (https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/05/26/new-poll-shows-huge-support-for-gun-restrictions-00035349 ).   The place to start is with mandatory background checks for gun purchases and the banning of sale of assault weapons.

5. Pass real economic reform.  The first four corrections are essential but not sufficient to repair our broken democracy.  The United States needs real economic reform.  Democracy doesn’t work in societies where there is extreme economic inequality.  Sadly, that’s what has happened to the United States.

US inequality is at a historic high.  Compared to our European partners (England, France, and Germany) the US has a much greater gap between the rich and the poor.  The rich — think Elon Musk — have so much more money than most Americans that they are buffered from economic turmoil.  During the pandemic, rich Americans got richer and everyone else got poorer.

Republicans, the Capitalist Party, seek to increase the power of the one percent.  If you ask Republicans why they supported Donald Trump, they will typically respond: “I don’t like him personally but he did a lot of good things.”  By “a lot of good things” Republicans mean: Trump helped Mitch McConnell pack the judiciary with conservative judges and Trump signed tax reform that massively favors the interests of the “one percent” and corporations.  Trump didn’t do very much as “president” but what he did do favored the interests of the rich.  This needs to be reversed. Democrats should sponsor concrete actions to secure a more equitable society.

Summary: To repair our broken political process, we need to do two things.  First, get out the vote in November.  It’s imperative that Democrats retain control of Congress.

Second, we must improve our messaging.  Democrats should say, “We put people over profits.  We represent the 99 percent not the richest one percent.”  Democrats should say clearly: “Republicans have sold out to the rich.  Republicans have sold out to big oil.  Republicans have sold out to the NRA.  Republicans have sold out to white male supremacists.”  “Democrats are the Party of the people.  Republicans are the Party of the dollar.”

This moment requires direct action.  “Thoughts are prayers” are woefully insufficient.