The State of the Race

Less than 19 days from election day, Democrats are running scared; they remember four years ago when most of them believed that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump.  (Clinton lost despite having 2.9 million (2.1%) more votes than Trump.)  Relax Dems; this time Trump is going down.

The Popular Vote:  According to the 538 website, Biden’s lead over Trump is 10.7 percentage points.  (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/)  After an extended period where his lead average 8 points, Biden surged after the September 29th presidential debate and the revelation Trump contracted COVID-19.

The latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-post-abc-presidential/2020/10/10/303b2230-0b1d-11eb-859b-f9c27abe638d_story.html ) shows Biden with a 12 point lead over Trump.  This poll is rated “A+” by the 538 website.

The Washington Post-ABC News Poll shines light on a number of important issues.  For example, there is the issue of Trump’s approval rating.  It’s consistently been a couple of points better than his polling numbers.  (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ )  This has led some observers to claim there are “shy” Trump voters, who will suddenly appear on November 3rd and propel Trump to victory.  The Post-ABC poll notes: “Trump’s overall approval rating among registered voters stands at 45 percent positive and 54 percent negative… Among those who approve of his job performance, 90 percent favor him for reelection.”  So, there are poll respondents who approve of Trump’s job performance but aren’t going to vote for him.  Who are they going to vote for?  Perhaps the Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen who receives 2 percent support in Post-ABC poll.

Therefore, the Post-ABC poll suggests that Trump’s voter support has a ceiling of around 42 percent.

While Trump’s best issue is the economy, this no longer gives him an edge over Biden.  According to the Post-ABC poll: “Trump and Biden are trusted about equally to handle the economy, while Biden has a 17-point advantage (55 percent to 38 percent) on dealing with the virus.” “Trump is judged harshly both for his handling of the pandemic and for failing to take what people regard as adequate protections to avoid contracting the virus.”

The Post-ABC poll indicates that basic demographics have shifted in favor of Biden: “Biden holds a 23-point advantage among female likely voters (59 percent to 36 percent), while Trump and Biden split men, 48 percent each. If those figures hold, both would represent a shift from 2016, when men backed Trump by 11 points and women favored Hillary Clinton by 13 points.”

“Trump leads by 26 points among White voters without four-year college degrees, which is smaller than his 36-point advantage in 2016… Biden holds a 31-point lead with White college graduates, which is much better than Clinton’s performance among this group.”

“Preferences among independent voters appear to have shifted considerably compared with 2016, with independent voters favoring Biden by 52 percent to 40 percent. By contrast, Trump beat Clinton among self-identified independent voters by four points.”

Electoral College:  The current Cook Report electoral projections shows Biden with 227 solid electoral votes.

Alaska: (3 electoral votes, Cook rates likely Republican).  Real Clear Politics indicates there’s not much polling in Alaska.  The Senate race (Gross vs Sullivan ) seems to be a tossup; as does the congressional race (Galvin versus Young).  Too close to call.

Arizona:  (11 electoral votes, Cook rates lean Democrat.)  Real Clear Politics shows Biden leading by 4 percent; Biden has been leading for several months.  (Trump has pulled his TV ads in Arizona (https://www.abc15.com/news/election-2020/president-trump-campaign-goes-dark-on-local-tv-but-for-how-long ).)

Prediction: Biden will win.  227+11=238 electoral votes.

Florida: (29 electoral votes, Cook rates tossup.)  Real Clear Politics shows Biden leading by 1.7 percent; race is too close to call.

Georgia: (16 electoral votes, Cook rates tossup.)  Real Clear Politics shows Biden leading by .4  percent; race is too close to call.

Michigan: (16 electoral votes, Cook rates lean Democrat.)  Real Clear Politics shows Biden leading by 7.2 percent; Biden has been leading for several months.  (Trump has pulled his TV ads in Michigan (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-14/trump-campaign-slashes-ad-spending-in-key-states-in-cash-crunch ).)

Prediction: Biden will win.  238+16=254.

North Carolina: (15 electoral votes, Cook rates tossup.)  Real Clear Politics shows Biden up by 2.7 percent.  race is too close to call.

Pennsylvania: (20 electoral votes, Cook rates lean Democrat.)  Real Clear Politics shows Biden up by 6.4 percent; Biden has been leading for several months.

Prediction: Biden will win. 254+20=274 (enough to win presidential election).

Texas: (38 electoral votes, Cook rates lean Republican.)  Real Clear Politics shows Trump up by 4.4 points; race is too close to call.

Wisconsin: (10 electoral votes, Cook rates lean Democrat.)  Real Clear Politics  shows Biden up by 6.3 points.

Prediction: Biden will win. 274+10=284.

Summary: Biden will easily win the popular vote — by more than 12 points.  He will also win the electoral college.